Electing the party leader

On 8 July 2013, then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced proposed changes to the way in which the Australian Labor Party elects its leader. The changes included votes by the party membership and votes by the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party (FPLP), weighted at 50% each, and processes for when and how a leader can be challenged and the amount of Caucus support needed to mount a challenge to the leader. The special meeting of Caucus on 22 July 2013 endorsed the proposals but agreed that a petition challenging the leader should require 60% Caucus support rather than the 75% proposed by Rudd. It was also agreed that, in the period between the federal election and the ALP election of its leader, the deputy leader or the highest ranked House of Representatives member would act as leader.

The 2013 Italian general election: a new source of European instability?

Source: Italian Parliament

The Italian general election took place on 24–25 February with the lowest voter turnout since the 1950s (under 75 per cent) and did not produce a clear parliamentary majority. It has left Italy politically deadlocked whilst rekindling fears of a new source of European instability.

European press and politicians have suggested that an uncertain election result in the Eurozone’s third largest economy (after Germany and France) has renewed fears of an imminent crisis in the Eurozone. Trading on the international financial markets was affected after the results were announced, as Italy’s markets slumped and the global oil price dropped. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reported that the Australian share market was also adversely affected.

Federal election 2013: How safe is your seat?

The “safeness” of an electoral division is determined by the size of the swing required for the division to be lost by the party (or independent) holding the division. A marginal division requires a swing of less than six per cent, a fairly safe division requires a swing of six to ten per cent and a safe division requires a swing of over ten per cent. This FlagPost details the most up-to-date information on those divisions that are marginal and fairly safe. Those seats that are considered safe have been excluded from this post.

U.S. Presidential election results and the changing nature of political communication

Despite predictions of a down-to-the-wire election, the US presidential election on 6 November 2012 provided incumbent President Barack Obama (Dem) with a definitive win both in Electoral College votes and the National Popular Vote. When Associated Press called Florida, the last state to be finalised, for President Obama, it gave him the overwhelming lead of 332 Electoral College votes, well in advance of the 270 votes needed to win and of Governor Romney’s (Rep) 206 votes.

What happens to the House and Senate if an election is called early in 2013?

Recently the possibility had been raised that an election may be called for only the House of Representatives in the early part of 2013. Usually, a half-Senate election would also be held. But according to the Australian elections timetable prepared by the Parliamentary Library, the earliest that a half-Senate election can feasibly occur is 3 August 2013.

Republican presidential nomination process

Republican Party Presidential Primaries
results by counties
Source: Wikimedia

The next United States Presidential election will be held on 6 November 2012. This year focus is on the Republican Party presidential nomination process as President Obama has announced his intention to seek the Democratic Party presidential nomination.

The presidential candidate for the Republican Party will have to accumulate at least 1144 delegate votes out of the 2286 on offer at the various primaries and caucuses from January to June this year to win the nomination at the Republican National Convention (27–30 August 2012). The latest primary, held in Illinois, was declared on 21 March 2012, with former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney taking the primary with 46.7 per cent of the vote bringing his delegate count to 558*. Former Senator for Pennsylvania Rick Santorum has been making an unexpected and significant showing having amassed 252* delegate votes after wining 35 per cent of the Illinois primary.

Women in Australian Parliaments



Vida Goldstein
Source: Wikimedia Commons

 A new Background Note, Representation of Women in Australian Parliaments, published by the Parliamentary Library to coincide with International Women's Day, reveals that there are currently more women parliamentarians in the Senate than at any other time since Federation. However, despite occupying several high-profile roles, women are still significantly under-represented in Australian parliaments, comprising less than one-third of all parliamentarians and occupying less than one-quarter of all ministry positions. In addition, whilst the number of women in the Senate reached its highest point after the 2010 Commonwealth election, the number of women in the House of Representatives declined. When comparing the proportion of women in national parliaments internationally, Australia's ranking has slipped from 21 to 38 over the past decade.

Informal votes - if they don't scrub up, should we let them into the election ball



Image source: AEC

At every federal election hundreds of thousands of citizens are lodging votes that don’t count towards the election of their representatives. These are votes that don’t meet the requirements to be considered ‘formal’—and their number is growing. At the 2010 election, 729 304 House of Representatives votes were declared informal—equivalent in number to the formal votes cast in 7.8 average electorates. This informality was 5.5 per cent of the vote—the highest level since the introduction of compulsory voting in 1924. The only other election with such unusually high levels of informality was at the 1984 election when the new Senate voting system was introduced, and many people were confused by the changes. Of course, voters may deliberately choose to cast an informal vote. At the 2010 election the Australian Electoral Commission considered 48.6 per cent of informal votes to be deliberately informal.

Time in Government since Federation

On Monday 28 March 2011 Barry O’Farrell was sworn in as Premier of New South Wales thus ending the Labor Party’s 16-year period in office. The Liberal/National Coalition’s win in NSW brings to three the current number of non-Labor governments in Australia’s nine federal, state and territory jurisdictions (Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales).

This is the first time since Federation that these three states have been under Coalition control while Labor is in power in the other six jurisdictions. It is quite the norm for there to be a mix of Labor and non-Labor jurisdictions. There have been only six periods when all federal and state governments were of the same political persuasion with non-Labor predominating.

Hung parliaments and minority governments

A recent Parliamentary Library paper examines the hung Commonwealth Parliament, the formation of the minority ALP Government, and voting dynamics in the House of Representatives together with a number of related issues such as the next federal election and hung parliaments and minority governments at the state/territory level.

After a hung Parliament emerged from the 2010 federal election (the first in almost 70 years), both the ALP and the Opposition engaged in negotiations with the cross-bench parliamentarians in order to form government. The ALP was ultimately successful, forming government in mid-September 2010 after signing agreements with the Australian Greens and with three of the other cross-bench members. These agreements provide a basic level of support for the Government and cover a range of matters including working relationships between the signatories, parliamentary reforms and policy agendas.

Early election

The House of Representatives that is emerging from the 2010 election, and the fact that the next government will be a minority government, raises the spectre of the electorate going to the polls well before the next federal election would otherwise be expected. If an election takes place prior to mid-2013 it will only be for the House of Representatives and the territory senators; the rest of the Senate will not be in play unless there is a double dissolution.

Hung Parliament

The last hung Federal Parliament occurred after the election on 21 September 1940 when Labor and the Coalition of the United Australia Party and the Country Party emerged with 36 seats each in the House of Representatives. The balance of power resided with two independents, Alex Wilson and Arthur Coles, who supported the Coalition and thus enabled the Menzies Government to remain in office (it was sworn in on 28 October). The independents' support lasted until late 1941 when they voted against the budget of the now Fadden-led Coalition Government, leading to the resignation of Fadden and the commissioning of the Curtin Labor Government on 7 October 1941.

Federal election 2010 - retirements

A number of Members and Senators have announced their intention not to re-contest the upcoming federal election. Nineteen Members of the House of Representatives (12.6% of the 150 seat chamber) and five Senators (6.5% of the 76 seat chamber) have indicated that they will retire at the election:

Federal election announced

On Saturday, 17 July 2010, the Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced that a federal election would be held on Saturday, 21 August 2010. The 42nd Parliament was prorogued and the House of Representatives dissolved at 5.00pm on Monday, 19 July 2010. Key dates for the 2010 federal election are:

- Announcement: Saturday, 17 July 2010
- Issue of writ: Monday, 19 July 2010
- Deadline to enrol to vote: 8pm Monday, 19 July 2010
- Deadline to update your electoral roll details (Close of rolls): 8pm Thursday, 22 July 2010
- Close of nominations: 12 noon Thursday, 29 July 2010
- Declaration of nominations: 12 noon Friday, 30 July 2010